Europe Resurgent
by Advait Arun, 08 May 2017
Advait Arun is a political commentator and writer at Frumious and Foreign Friday, a school board representative-elect in Gunn School District, and the National Co-ordinator at Uproot.
This piece is about Macron. But this piece is also about the world. Emmanuel Macron, the youngest French head of state since Napoleon, has never held elected office before, yet he swept away Le Pen in a decisive victory. Granted, most of his support came from those who refused to support Le Pen, but there is no denying that Macron has a suave, cosmopolitan personality that gave him the momentum he needed to succeed.
Say what you will about his policies — his economic ideas are contentious not just at home but abroad. But they all hinge on one main factor: the European Union. Macron is a committed internationalist, paying homage to the European tradition of his predecessors. At his victory celebration, Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy” (the EU’s anthem) was played instead of the Marseillaise, the French national anthem.
It may seem that Macron is just another globalist who doesn’t care for the downtrodden of France. That is yet to be proven. But, from his initial ideas and his worldview, I personally see something completely different, with far-reaching consequences.
For the past 70 years, defined by the bipolar (US and USSR) world order, Europe has largely taken a backseat in world affairs. They remain important in Eastern Europe and in some conflicts in the Middle East, through NATO and the powerful economic bloc they make up (the EU), but they largely hold no significant stake in areas of the world they used to control.
Where did Great Britain, France, and Germany go? They shaped the world in which the USA, Russia, and China fight over, and yet they seem mired in continental affairs.
That’s where Macron has the potential to change the game. But first we must make some decidedly far-fetched assumptions. Let’s assume that his party En Marche claims a plurality in the French Parliament, giving Macron the ability to enact his reforms. Next, let’s say his reforms don’t cause crippling controversy, and instead produce positive results. Give it a year, and maybe the French economy will be on the rise again.
If that happens, France can challenge the German policy of financial austerity in the EU, and it can use its new economic leverage to turn the EU from a German economic tool into something that really does work for the good of all Europe. The European Union will attain much more economic power, being backed by two powerhouses instead of one. (This doesn’t bode well for Britain, but we’ll get back to that later.)
America, Russia, and China might be the most powerful nations on Earth currently, but assuming Macron, through his vitality and political prowess, succeeds, he could redefine the world in which we know. Instead of seeing a right-wing populist wave sweep Europe, we could instead see France and Germany leading Europe back into the international arena.
With a stronger European Union, economically, Macron and Merkel can pursue better immigration policies, better collective security, and a redefined international role. Starting in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, we could see France and Germany commit protection to the former and diplomacy/peacekeeping to the latter, largely usurping the waning American commitments in those regions.
The idea speaks for itself. But what of Great Britain, whose Crown once shone over more than a third of the world’s surface? Currently, they are mired in what might be the “worst trade deal in the history of trade deals” — and it’s not Brexit. Rather, it’s the negotiation to get out of Brexit, that threatens to split Great Britain back into separate nations.
Economically, Great Britain will recover. Economies always bounce back.
Foreign policy-wise, however, they must realize that they were never British, they were always European — Continental affairs occupy them more than they would like to admit. For centuries, they were the arbiter of the balance of power on the continent, and eventually the world.
America’s ambivalence about its role in the world, in juxtaposition with what might go down as one of the biggest Conservative takeovers of the British government in a century, gives Britain the chance to redefine its relations with Europe and the entire world.
Theresa May may not be part of the EU anymore, but you can bet that, along with Macron and Merkel, she will be anxious to project British power back onto an uneasy world.
Macron has not succeeded with his agenda yet. And, of course, Merkel (or someone of the same ideological bent as her) must succeed in German federal elections in September. But if they do, the world could see a radical shift in the geopolitical landscape, as the European powers return to preeminence against a revanchist Russia, a restive Middle East, and a looming China.
I reference America as a “waning” power a few times above, but this is only because there has been no consistent policy put forth by the Trump administration as to responding to the threats that we face. America is ambivalent and, by virtue of inaction, is receding from it’s preeminent global role. Of course, this shift is not permanent, and America, if we chose, could easily reclaim that mantle. But, until then, the playing field is wide open for the European states to get back in the game and make their mark.
Best of luck, Emmanuel Macron. The fate of Europe depends on you. 