What this Election means for U.S.-Cuba Relations

What this Election means for U.S.-Cuba Relations

by Daniela Gomez

             Since November 2014, Obama has made it a mission to bring the US and Cuba closer together. The steps he has taken to get closer to the small island country have been exalted and criticized in equal measure, but the tentative relationship the US has with Cuba now may be in danger as soon as President-elect Trump takes office. Through his preferred method of social media communication, Trump tweeted that he would halt relations with Cuba if he didn’t get a “better deal”.

 Follow

Donald J. Trump 

✔@realDonaldTrump

If Cuba is unwilling to make a better deal for the Cuban people, the Cuban/American people and the U.S. as a whole, I will terminate deal.

6:02 AM - 28 Nov 2016

 
•  24,67224,672 Retweets
 
•  84,03384,033 likes

             Of course, it’s hard to know Trump’s position on anything, he flip-flops too much, but it is possible that he does nothing in the near future to try to change Cuban-American relations. His tweet shows if anything a lack of understanding about how these diplomatic moves are made. The relationship both countries have right now is an accumulation of different strategic moves and deals, not just one treaty or deal that can be rewritten. Not to mention Trump has been supportive of normalizing US-Cuba relations in the past, only saying that he would have made a “stronger deal” as president instead of the steps taken by President Obama. This lack of understanding or position could force him to simply keep relations where they are right now, if not continue to open up to the island nation. Unfortunately, Cuba may sense that the American president knows little to nothing about international diplomacy and try to take advantage of that.Not to mention, Trump has been supportive of normalizing US-Cuba relations, in the past, saying only that he would've made a "stronger deal" as President, as opposed to the steps taken by President Obama. This lack of understanding or position may force him to keep relations where they are now or continue upon the path set by Obama before him. Unfortunately, Cuba may sense how little the President-elect knows about international diplomacy and try to take advantage of that.
             What most likely will happen is that President Trump will leave dealing with Cuban relations to Congress, which holds a Republican majority and will probably push toward a tougher stance on the nation and try to re-add it to the list of States that Sponsor Terrorism. Interestingly enough, House Speaker Paul Ryan was at one point in favor of lifting the embargo against Cuba, saying it was a failure, so he may be more open-minded as to maintaining and working to continue open relations with the country. The best that can be expected is that nothing much happens in the next two years (until midterm elections in which the Democrats have a chance to retake at least the Senate).
            Trump’s election has thrown a lot of questions in the air, especially about foreign policy. Trump’s inexperience and immature appearance to the rest of the world is much to our disadvantage. Though Trump said he would be America’s strongman, he gives off quite the opposite effect to other countries, who sense weakness in a president who has no government experience and who sees no problem in tweeting retaliatory and insulting comments at 3 AM in the morning. This appearance might be the most damaging for American foreign relations, especially with Cuba, with whom it is important to appear open but firm and strong. Trump so far has mastered neither, and it seems unlikely he will do so in the coming years. However it is important to look at how much the House and Senate are involved in fostering these good relations, especially when the president may not be able to do much good about them. Hopefully, Congress will serve as a check to Trump’s blatant lack of experience or governmental knowledge, and therefore preserve some of the progress that has been made in the last eight years, especially relating to Cuba, but that remains to be seen. Hopefully in these next four years, they will counteract the racist and anti-foreign policy image that Trump espouses. So, hopefully, the Washington insiders that Trump so despises will play a significant role in keeping him from ruining American foreign policy in the indefinite future.

How Foreign Leaders and Officials are Reacting to Trump's Election

How Foreign Leaders and Officials are Reacting to Trump's Election

by Whitney Ahn

          Harjit Sajjan, the Canadian Minister of National Defence, said he was "looking forward" to Donald Trump's inauguration, something commonly said about most new President-elects by foreign officials. However, Donald Trump is not most President-elects.

          Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, offered a mixed tone, saying she'd be willing to work with Donald Trump because German-American relations are essential to her country. The deputy chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, however, was far more blunt, saying that "Trump is a trailblazer of a new authoritarian and chauvinist international movement."

          Another international major figure, former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqan, has also come out with negativity. Today at the Halifax International Security Forum, said of anti-Muslim rhetoric that "harm has already been done... people who like me can't help you."

          Similarly to Merkel, Federica Mogherini (the European Union's foreign affairs chief) tweeted her reaction to Trump's victory: "EU-US ties are deeper than any change in politics." This implies that she has some fears that Trump will cause a major shift regarding American politics towards Europe. Martin Schulz, the president of the European parliament, called Trump's elect "a protest vote" similar to Brexit.

          NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that he was looking forward to working with Trump, but emphasized that "it is important that the transatlantic bond remains strong." Trump has repeatedly called for pulling out of funding for NATO unless other countries agree to pay more.

          Theresa May congratulated Trump on his victory. After Brexit, the UK is trying to maintain positive relationships with as many countries as possible. Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, went in an opposing route, calling for Trump to prove he "will be a president for everyone in modern, multicultural America."

          In France, President François Hollande said that Trump's win "opens up a period of uncertainty." Hollande had previously endorse Secretary Clinton in the presidential race. He emphasized that "certain positions taken by Donald Trump" put many things in jeopardy, saying that "what is at stake is peace, the fight against terrorism, the situation in the Middle East... economic relations, and the preservation of the planet." However, Marine Le Pen, a major opposition figure globally known for her controversial rhetoric regarding ethnic and racial minorities considered offensive by many, has shown the utmost support for Trump. Trump has returned the favor by going so far as to prioritize conversations with Le Pen above even talking to the French president, and many other world leaders.

          Vladimir Putin sent a telegram to Trump (yes, they still do that), congratulating him. At a ceremony at the Kremlin, he said that "it's not our fault that Russian-American relations our in such a poor state," but expressed optimism that under Trump, the two nations can come closer. Putin clearly sees an opportunity to connect with Trump, and hopes to increase co-operation between the two. In Ukraine, President Petro Poroshenko met with the US ambassador on Wednesday, and claimed that he remained optimistic that "the US administration would remain a reliable partner in the struggle for democracy."

          Isreali Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Trump, and was extremely enthusiastic about his election. One of his ministers, Naftali Bennett, declared that Trump's victory meant that "the era of a Palestinian state is over." Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbasaid expressed serious caution but optimism. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that Trump's "elections marks the beginning of a new era," and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that the election has no impact on Iranian policies.

          Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto expressed a willingness to work with Trump, after being criticized heavily within his country for having dialogues with him while he was still a candidate. Former presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador said that Mexico is "a free independent, sovereign country," that it is neither a colony nor a protectorate, and that Mexico depends on no foreign government.

          China's President Xi Jinping congratulated Trump, and Lu Kang, a spokesperson for China's foreign ministry, said that they were looking forward to working with him. Joko Widodo, the president of Indonesia (the world's largest Muslim nation), said that he "thinks there will be no change." President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, known for mass murders and insulting Barack Obama (he called him a "son of a whore" earlier this year), extended warm congratulations

          Japan's Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, was the first foreign leader to meet with Trump, and expressed cautious optimism, a tone that seems to be struck by the vast majority of foreign leaders and officials.

Trying to be Optimistic: The Positives of Donald Trump and The Sun Came Up Today

Trying to be Optimistic:

The Positives of Donald Trump

by Whitney Ahn

Donald Trump is a racist. He is a sexist. He is a homophobe. He is ignorant. He is rude. He is arrogant. He is self-centered. He has no humility. He’s also the next President of the United States. We have to move forward, so unless a coup or impeachment occurs, it’s important to look at the positives of his future presidency. Allegedly, some exist.

Firstly, there’s his character. His arrogance leads to his constant need and desire to show off his strength. Holding all the power, means he will want to show all the power. Perhaps he may end up being too hawkish, but coming off of an Obama presidency, it could provide a neutralizing effect on America’s reputation in the world.
Secondly, there’s his ties to Russia. These make him more willing to work with the Russian government and thusly relationships could see serious improvements. Yes, we may end up subservient to Russia, but we could also end up with a more cordial relationship with the former Soviets.
And... that’s it. That’s all that I can really think of. Let’s all pray we make it through these next four years alive and that Trump doesn’t win re-election.

The Sun Came Up Today

by W.H. Paulson

Well, the sun came up today. Contrary to popular belief, the world didn't end in a roaring tide of fire and eternal brimstone. If you are wondering why and how Donald Trump got elected, there is a reason. If you look at the way the left has treated people in the middle or on the right, it becomes very obvious. Over the past year, the divide between the people that support him and the people that despise him has only grown, primarily because of the left's antiquated ideology that if you're not with them, you’re against them. This divide has shown the vitriolic hatred that the left have towards anyone who doesn't agree with them.

For example, while attending a local Trump rally, I’ve been spit on, cursed at, and had my safety threatened. All that just because I listened to a man speak. After seeing this, I realized why Donald Trump won, because the left gave up any kind of political moderation and tolerance. Instead, it has transformed from a party of understanding and compassion into a group of marxists and fascists.

The new left now believes that if you disagree with them, you are part of the problem. This hatred of differing beliefs is the reason why things like Brexit and Duterte have happened, and is why the radical right in France will be elected next year. People are sick and tired of being called a homophobe, a racist, and a bigot because they have differing opinions. This is the reason Donald won; people are sick of being hated for their beliefs. I think that we as Americans we have lost all hope in humanity. If we have faith in one thing only, at least let it be that.

Why Russia Is So Effective: Countering Russian Power Gains

Why Russia Is So Effective:

Countering Russian Power Gains

by Whitney Ahn

Russia is in an economic crisis. Their military capabilities are on a decline. They severely lack in allies, especially in Europe. And yet, Vladimir Putin is able to perform this weakening hand so incredibly powerfully. This leads to more and more nations, like the Philippines, becoming more attracted to aligning with Moscow (and Beijing) over Washington.

One potential explanation is the Donald Trump line, that Putin is such a strong leader he can overcome any weaknesses that his country might have. That’s seriously debatable, as Putin has repeatedly shown that his capabilities for subtleties in his foreign policy are highly limited.

Another possible rationale is that the Russian’s strengths are so specialized into important realms of modern society. For example, one of the major strengths of the Soviet Union was the math and science education, so it’s no surprise that a lasting impact of the Soviet Union is that Russia is blessed with incredible computer capabilities, which gives them the ability to hack nearly anyone or anything at will.

So how does the United States counter that? Although some might say that making counter-investments in technologies could be a good strategy, I would posit that the best thing to do would be to play our own strengths. Rather than hacking the Kremlin, perhaps the focus should be on increasing investments on American military forces in Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean, and other regions that Russia has strategic interests in. Rather than fixing our weaknesses, I would propose that Vladimir has proven over the past decade and a half that a stronger strategy would be to focus on our strengths and to flaunt and deploy them wisely.
Another major strength of the United States is our appeal as a beacon of democracy. When the world watches and sees in our Congress extreme levels of bureaucracy, incompetence, and ineffectiveness, they see a nation of discordance. They are pushed away from the United States and our allies, and towards Russia and China, and their respective allies. Thus, the best best counter-measures would be to find ways to streamline our Congressional processes, improve upon our disastrous ineffectiveness, and resolve our extreme polarization.

The Duterte Problem

How to Deal with Rodrigo Duterte

by Whitney Ahn

Yesterday, on the 20th of October 2016, President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines announced that he wants to end his nation’s relationship with the United States, and conduct a pivot to China (a pivot already more successful than President Obama’s attempted Asia pivot). This comes just one day after a police van rammed into anti-American protesters outside the U.S. embassy in Manila, after months of seemingly insane human rights abuses from the police, and after months brutally public and blatantly anti-American rhetoric from the Filipino leader. He even went so far as to call President Barack Obama what roughly translates to “a son of bitch”.

These should incredibly concerning, because the Philippines are an absolutely key ally of the United States. Together with Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, the Philippines are a major counter-balance to Chinese power in East Asia. In addition, they export to the United States everything from computer parts to coconut oil to textiles to automobile parts, and, in terms of natural resources that a positive relationship with the United States could lead to American exploitation of, they also have about twenty-two billion metric tons of metals. Beyond just the erosion of a major alliance, the cavalier attitude that Rodrigo Duterte has publically held for the United States is damaging the reputation of our nation. Other allies wary of America suddenly find themselves in a situation where they have the option to disavow the United States completely. Irreparable damage has been caused, so crisis management skills need to come into play here.

If the Filipino anti-American sentiment is dissolved, the support for Rodrigo Duterte may also dissolve. In addition, because American culture is more empathetic to the less fortunate than Asian cultures often are, a reshaping of Filipino culture to be more American-like would most likely result in less support for the Duterte’s hyper-violent tendencies and policies. Thus the initial solution to the problem of Rodrigo Duterte’s negative influence on the Philippines relationship with human rights, and also with the United States, must be a cultural shift. Thus, the next question must be: How does the United States go about shifting the Philippines’ culture to be more pro-Western, and, more specifically, more pro-American? One potential proposal could be a simple yet effective solution: waging a propaganda war.

While the United States government needs to work a lot more at changing the Filipino view of the United States by investing more into a public diplomacy, another important step for the United States to take is to cause further rifts in their relationships with China. The South China Sea seems like an obvious place to start. By increasing military drills and patrols in the region, the United States could force the focus of all the nations in the region to return to that conflict, distracting from the Filipino-American rift and reigniting the Filipino-Chinese rift. After all, the Philippines would be forced to either side with China, effectively ceding their territorial claims, or side with the United States and its allies, forcing a return to the normal alignments of states.